高级检索

    IPSO-Stacking双驱动集成学习自适应模型的致密砂岩储层渗透率预测

    Permeability prediction for tight sandstone reservoirs based on an IPSO-Stacking dual-driven ensemble learning model

    • 摘要: 传统的致密砂岩储层渗透率预测通常采用物理模型与拟合模型,物理模型难以获取精准的物理参数,纯数据驱动的拟合模型对非均质性较强的储层渗透率的预测准确性较差。为此,从耦合物理模型和机器学习拟合模型入手,首先引入Stacking集成学习模型预测储层流动单元指数(FZI),并结合Kozeny-Carman模型以及离散岩石类型(DRT)对储层进行划分,然后使用改进的粒子群优化(IPSO)算法对物理模型和机器学习拟合模型的参数同步进行动态优化,得到IPSO-Stacking双驱动集成学习自适应模型(简称IPSO-Stacking模型),利用江汉WG油田的测井数据测试IPSO-Stacking模型对致密砂岩储层的渗透率预测的能力。试验结果表明:利用由耦合物理模型与机器学习拟合模型得到的IPSO-Stacking模型预测的FZI准确度达到98%,预测的渗透率准确度为93%,证明了IPSO-Stacking模型较强的预测能力;IPSO算法较传统元启发式优化算法能更有效地调整物理模型和机器学习模型的参数;利用IPSO算法进行迭代,得到的DRT经验系数更具适应性。IPSO-Stacking模型通过物理与数据驱动的协同优化,实现了致密砂岩储层渗透率的高精度预测。

       

      Abstract: Permeability prediction for tight sandstone reservoirs usually uses physical and fitted models. However, physical models face challenges in obtaining accurate petrophysical parameters, while completely data-driven fitted models show poor performance in heterogeneous reservoirs. In response to these challenges, we propose a coupled approach integrating physical and fitted models. An ensemble learning model Stacking is employed to predict flow zone indicator (FZI) that characterizes reservoir flow units. The Kozeny-Carman model is combined with a discrete rock typing (DRT) method for reservoir classification. An improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) algorithm is then utilized to synchronize the parameters of the physical and machine learning models dynamically. As per a case study in Jianghan oilfield, the adaptive IPSO-Stacking model, established by coupling a physical model with a machine learning fitted model, achieves an accuracy of 98% in FZI prediction and 93% in permeability estimation, demonstrating robust predictive ability. The IPSO method is superior to conventional meta-heuristic optimization algorithms in adjusting physical and fitted model parameters. Through IPSO iteration, the derived DRT empirical coefficients exhibit enhanced adaptability. The dual-driven IPSO-Stacking model achieves high-precision permeability prediction for tight sandstone reservoirs through collaborative optimization by integrating physics-based and data-driven approaches.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回