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    基于TDCN-TransNet的深水重力流气田储层含水饱和度地震预测方法

    Seismic Prediction Method for Reservoir Water Saturation in Deep-Water Gravity Flow Gas Fields Based on TDCN-TransNet

    • 摘要: 深水重力流储层含水饱和度预测是油气藏储层评价和产量预测的关键步骤,因其高度非均质性和复杂地质结构导致气水分布不均一,传统测井和地震方法难以准确捕捉微观流体分布特征,储层含水饱和度预测精度显著偏低,制约油气藏评价和产量预测。为此,基于时序动态卷积网络(Temporal Sequence Dynamic Convolution Network, TDCN)和时序上下文块(Temporal Context Block, TCBlock)的优异序列特征提取和长距离依赖建模能力,提出了一种基于TDCN-TransNet的地震弹性参数含水饱和度预测方法。研究结果表明:①TDCN模块以动态卷积核为基础,利用CBAM注意力机制和改进的耦合动态滤波器提取高信息量的序列特征,增强了模型对复杂非均质储层结构的表征能力;②TCBlock模块通过瓶颈结构和SENet提取全局上下文信息,实现更精确的长距离依赖建模;③双重TWT位置编码通过引入序列空间位置信息,进一步增强了模型对储层垂向结构的理解和长距离非线性关系的建模能力,有效地降低了模型对储层含水饱和度的预测误差。结论:①TDCN-TransNet模型在消融实验和对比实验中的验证集R²分数为0.9572,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.0304,平均绝对误差(MAE)为0.0144,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为2.09%,相较于基线模型与其他主流机器学习算法R²分数至少提高了0.0383,RMSE至少降低了0.0115,MAE至少降低了0.0088,MAPE至少降低了1.04%;②TDCN-TransNet模型在实际工区应用中实现了高吻合度以及高精度的含水饱和度预测,为储层含水饱和度预测提供了新思路、新方法。

       

      Abstract: The prediction of water saturation in deep-water gravity flow reservoirs is a critical step in reservoir evaluation and production forecasting, as the highly heterogeneous and complex geological structures lead to uneven gas-water distribution. Traditional logging and seismic methods struggle to accurately capture the microscopic fluid distribution features, resulting in significantly low prediction accuracy for reservoir water saturation, which restricts reservoir evaluation and production forecasting. To address this, a seismic elastic parameters prediction method for reservoir saturation based on the Temporal Sequence Dynamic Convolution Network (TDCN) and Temporal Context Block (TCBlock) is proposed, leveraging the excellent sequence feature extraction and long-range dependency modeling capabilities of these models. The study results show that: (1) The TDCN module, based on dynamic convolution kernels, utilizes the CBAM attention mechanism and an improved coupled dynamic filter to extract high-information sequence features, enhancing the model's ability to represent complex heterogeneous reservoir structures. (2) The TCBlock module extracts global contextual information through bottleneck structures and SENet, achieving more precise long-range dependency modeling. (3) The dual TWT position encoding, by introducing sequence spatial positional information, further enhances the model's understanding of vertical reservoir structures and the modeling of long-distance nonlinear relationships, effectively reducing prediction errors for water saturation. The conclusion is: (1) The TDCN-TransNet model achieved a validation R² score of 0.9572, a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.0304, a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.0144, and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 2.09%, showing improvements of at least 0.0383 in R², a reduction of at least 0.0115 in RMSE, a reduction of at least 0.0088 in MAE, and a reduction of at least 1.04% in MAPE compared to the baseline model and other mainstream machine learning algorithms. (2) The TDCN-TransNet model achieved high consistency and accuracy in water saturation predictions in practical field applications, providing a new approach and method for reservoir water saturation prediction.

       

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